基于粗糙集-未确知测度理论的金属矿山紧急避险能力评价模型  

Emergency refuge ability in metal mine evaluation model based on rough set and unascertained measure theory

作　　者：史采星[1] 史秀志[1] 张舒[1] 赵建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第3期112-117,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为实现对金属矿山紧急避险能力的可靠预测,建立了基于粗糙集-未确知测度理论的紧急避险能力评价模型。以问卷调查的方式获取指标数据;运用粗糙集理论对影响紧急避险能力的28个指标进行约简,删除相对不重要的指标,从而得到最优指标,进而通过归一化数据求得约简指标的综合权重;对约简后的指标建立未确知测度模型。以广西某矿为例,根据专家的打分,确定单指标未确知测度;依据置信度准则,进行等级判定,得出该矿山的紧急避险能力评价结果。将预测结果与专家评价结果对比,两者结果相符,表明该方法可行。The present paper takes it as goal to introduce an evaluation model based on the rough set and unascertained evaluation theory so as to realize the predictability of emergency refuge ability in metal mines. In doing so, we have established an evaluation model of emergency escaping ability, which includes of 28 indexes at 5 levels, such as the mining emergency control ability, the monitoring and supervision ability, the personnel emergency response ability, the construction of the emergency safety facilities and emergency salvation mechanism. In this paper, we have prepared for a questionnaire first, and the collected different responses and reactions from the mining managers of the metal mines, the technical control staff-members and the workmen at the mining production fronts. Then we analyze and discretize the data, so that they meet the requirements of the rough set algorithm. In the paper, we have made all the data and information collected reduced to 28 kinds of indexes which are likely to affect the emergency refuge-taking probabilities according to the rough set theory and deleted the comparatively unimportant ones so as to obtain the optimal ones including 15 indexes at 5 levels. Furthermore, we have gained the compressive weights of the reduced indexes through normalization. Having finished the above investigation and analysis procedures, we have worked out a comprehensive unascertained measure model of the reduced indexes. In order to prove the rationality of the process of establishing the unascertained measure model, we have taken a metal mining enterprise in Guangxi as our case study sample. In order to check the efficacy of the single index unascertained measurements of individual indexes, we have invited dozens of the experts in the field to confirm and reassure the indexes of the Risk Evaluation Model. All the individual evaluation index were graded into five ranks： excellent, good, ordinary, poor and bad, with all the sum total of the index scores being 10 points. Thus, all the emergency escapi

关 键 词：安全工程 金属矿山 紧急避险能力 粗糙集理论 指标约简 未确知测度 置信度识别准则 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]