基于事故树和贝叶斯网络的飞机偏冲出跑道风险分析  

Risk analysis of the runway excursion and overrun event based on the fault tree and Bayesian networks

作　　者：赵宁宁[1] 赵宇婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空管学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第3期141-145,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为了加强对飞机运行过程的安全管理,降低飞机起降偏冲出跑道事件发生的概率,利用事故树和贝叶斯网络模型对飞机偏冲出跑道事件进行了定性和定量的分析。首先,建立事故树模型,对飞机起降冲偏出跑道的原因进行分析。一方面,总结导致飞机起降偏冲出跑道的基本事件,计算基本事件的结构重要度,指出基本事件对顶事件发生的结构重要度影响,同时计算飞机起降冲偏出跑道事故树模型的最小割集和最小径集,分析顶事件发生的条件和为避免顶事件的发生需要采取的应对措施;另一方面,通过对基本事件发生概率的赋值,计算基本事件的概率重要度和顶事件发生概率,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响。其次,为了便于各职能部门加强管理,明确工作的重点,结合贝叶斯网络计算中间事件的条件概率。This paper intends to offer a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the runway excursion and overrun events by means of the fault tree model and Bayesian network model in hoping to strengthen the safety management of the aircraft operation and reduce the likeliness of the runway excursion and overrun in the control of the aircraft takeoff and landing events. To achieve the purpose, we have first of all set up a fault tree model with the purpose to help to analyze the likely causes that may lead to such runway excursion and overrun events in case of the airport aviation commanding. On the one hand, this paper has been paying great attention to the structural importance of the basic events while pointing out the impacts of such events upon the compressive operation of the top events through an assessment of the basic events. On the other hand, we have worked out the minimum cut sets and the minimum path sets of the fault tree for the aircraft aviation management during the takeoff and landing process to evade the accidents of such events according to the mathematical probability. Therefore, it is also necessary to point out the effects of the incidence probability of such basic events on the accident probability through a scientific and systematic assessment on the incidence probability of such events. Secondly, in order to promote the airport management and the various functional departments of the air flight to better understand the focus of work, this paper has also worked out the conditional probability of intermediate events based on the Bayesian network to display the focus and the direction of the daily safety management for the various management departments, such as the airline operation centers, the airport operation management departments, the ATM units and the flight operation control units.

关 键 词：安全管理 事故树 冲出跑道 偏出跑道 贝叶斯 

分 类 号：X9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]