海峡西岸经济区出境旅游需求影响研究——基于人民币汇率变动视角  

Research on the Impact of Outbound Tourism Needs in West Straits Economic Zone——Based on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation

作　　者：许贵福[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建船政交通职业学院公共教学部,福建福州350007

出　　处：《北京城市学院学报》2014年第3期49-54,共6页Journal of Beijing City University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目<人民币汇率变动对我国价格水平的传递效应研究>(11YJA790048);福建省社会科学规划项目<地区贸易结构与经济增长--基于海西经济数据的研究>(2012B134);福建省教育厅社会科学研究项目(JB12673S)

摘　　要：本研究选取1997—2013年度数据,运用误差修正模型考察了人民币汇率变化对海峡西岸经济区(以下简称海西区)出境旅游需求的影响。结果表明,海西经济区出境旅游人次与人民币兑美元汇率、城镇居民可支配收入之间有长期均衡关系,边际弹性为正,人民币兑美元汇率每升值1%会导致海西经济区出境旅游人数增加3.73%,海西经济区城镇居民可支配收入每提高1%会促使出境旅游人数增长2.27%。人民币汇率变化对海西经济区居民出境旅游短期影响要小于长期影响。随着海西经济区人民生活水平的不断提高,如果人民币继续升值,今后几年将迎来出境旅游的高峰。因此,海西经济区各相关部门应未雨绸缪提前做好应对。Based on the annual data from 1997 to 2013, this paper examines the impact of RMB exchange rate on the outbound tourism needs in west straits economic zone through the error correction model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the number of west straits economic zone＇s outbound tourism, the RMB against the U. S. dollar and the disposable income of urban residents and the marginal elasticity is positive. Particularly, every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the U. S. dollar will lead to an increase of 3.73% in China~ outbound tourist population, and every 1% increase of urban residents disposable income will lead to an increase of 2. 27% in the number of outbound tourism. But compared with long-term impact, the short-term impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the outbound tourism in west strait economic zone is less significant. With the development of people＇s living standard in west straits economic zone, there will be a peak of outbound tourism in the following years if RMB keeps appreciating. Therefore, the relevant departments should take precautions ahead of time to respond.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 海西经济区 出境旅游 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]