我国跨境资金流动趋势识别及影响因素实证研究  

A study on identifying cross-border fund flow trend and contributory factors

作　　者：胡国正[1] 钟升[1] 贺涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家外汇管理局重庆外汇管理部国际收支处

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2014年第4期37-44,共8页China Money

摘　　要：文章基于银行代客跨境收支数据，构建交易性、投资性收支指标，采取趋势移动平均方式，对不同方向、不同性质跨境资金流动趋势进行测量、分析、判断，对我国跨境资金流动趋势影响因素、不同时期内跨境资金流动影响机制变化等进行实证研究，并从外汇管理角度提出需关注的重点及相关建议，为加强跨境资金流动监测分析、防范跨境资金流动风险、推进外汇管理改革提供决策参考。Based on cross-border payments data of banks, the article establishes trading and investment payments indicators. By using moving average trend-line, the article measures and analyzes the trends of cross-border fund flows in China from different directions and natures of the flows, and conducts empirical study on the factors influencing cross-border fund flows and the action mechanisms in different periods. From the perspective of foreign exchange administration, the article raises the key concerns and suggestions to strengthen cross-border fund flow monitoring, guard against cross-border fund flow risk and promote foreign exchange administration reform.

关 键 词：跨境资金流动 因素分析 实证研究 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]