国际收支视角下金融风险传染机制探讨  

An Analysis of Mechanism of Financial Risk Contagion from the Perspective of International Balance of Payment

作　　者：吴炳辉[1] 何建敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际论坛》2014年第4期69-72,81,共4页International Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<基于复杂网络与M ulti-Agent融合的金融市场间风险溢出效应研究>(项目编号:71371051);教育部人文社科青年基金<后金融危机时代中国银行业系统性风险测度与预警研究>(项目编号:12YJC630101)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：金融危机的频繁爆发使金融风险传染问题引发了更多的关注,后危机时代金融风险传染呈现出突发事件的二维性、传染效应的复杂性和传染区域的多元化等特点。针对这些新的特点,本文以国际收支理论为基础尝试构建金融风险传染的宏观分析框架,得到了以下研究结论:首先在经常项目下,金融风险溢出主要依赖于国际贸易渠道,此时国民收入和汇率水平的变动都是影响进出口的重要因素;其次在资本和金融项目下,直接金融市场和间接金融市场构成了金融风险传染的主要渠道。通过比较金融风险传染在国际收支不同项目下的差别,认为在经济一体化背景下更应对资本和金融项目上的金融风险进行重点防范。The problem of financial risk contagion has attracted more and more concern w ith the frequent outbreak of the financial crisis. This paper analyzes new characteristics of financial risk contagion in post crisis era,w hich are the tw o dimensional characteristic of risk source emergency,the complexity of risk contagion effect and the diversification of contagion area. O n this basis,the paper discusses international contagion mechanism of financial risk from the perspective of international balance of payment. In current account,the financial risk contagion mainly depends on international trade,w hich is influenced by many factors such as national income and exchange rate. In capital and financial account,the financial risk is transmitted to other countries through direct financial market and indirect financial market. Finally,this paper points out that the government should pay more attention to supervision in capital and financial account ow ing to the rapid development of internet finance and electronic payment.

关 键 词：后危机时代 金融风险传染 传染机制 国际收支 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]