服务外包的出口效应——基于制造业生产率差异的门限回归  

Study of Export Effects of Service Outsourcing Based on Threshold Regression of Manufacturing Productivity

作　　者：白瑜婷 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第7期103-111,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学一般项目"中国生产性服务业与制造业融合发展研究"(10YJC790331)的资助

摘　　要：本文从中国作为服务发包方的视角出发,对比分析国内服务外包和国际服务外包对制造业出口的不同影响,并考虑制造业行业生产率差异引起的系数变化。采用中国2000-2010年的投入产出表计算服务外包,通过面板OLS回归和门限回归的实证分析,结果发现国际服务外包明显有利于制造业出口,国内服务外包则在一定程度上阻碍了制造业出口;生产率较低的制造业行业,其国际服务外包对出口的影响大于生产率较高的行业。最后从结论出发,针对中国制造业的发展提出政策建议。This paper, from the perspective of Chinese outsourcing, analyzes the different impacts of domestic and international service outsourcing on manu- facturing export with the consideration of productivity in the non-linear model. Using input-output tables of China in 2000-2010, the paper estimates the effects of service outsourcing on manufacturing export through the panel OLS and thresh- old regression. The main conclusions show that international service outsourcing is positively associated with manufacturing export, while domestic service out- sourcing is an obstacle for export to some extent. The results also show that manufacturing industries with lower productivity have stronger influences on ex- port than those with higher productivity. To conclude, this paper suggests corre- sponding policies for the development of China＇ s manufacturing industries.

关 键 词：国际服务外包 国内服务外包 FH指数 门限回归 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]