住宅市场与高额外汇储备——中国1998-2011的实证研究  

Housing Market and Soaring Foreign Exchange Reserves:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Market in 1998-2011

作　　者：李达[1] 龚六堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第7期166-176,共11页Journal of International Trade

摘　　要：本文提供一个新的机制解释我国高额外汇储备成因。本文把住宅看作非贸易品,那么住宅偏好冲击将会使得一国住宅价格上升,从而改变本国居民的消费结构,即减少国内贸易品需求增加国外贸易品需求,导致国内厂商选择把更多产品出口,但是由于居民实际收入减少,所以增加的国外贸易品需求没有超过出口的增加,从而一国出现贸易盈余。在住宅偏好不断改变的时期,这种冲击可以持续作用于进出口,从而会在一个较长的时期内使得国内持续出现贸易顺差。在实行固定汇率和资本管制的条件下,央行通过冲销操作最终使得央行积累了巨额的外汇储备。本文利用我国1998年到2011年的季度数据以及VAR方法为该机制提供了实证证据。This paper provides a new mechanism to explain why China holds high foreign exchange reserves. In this theory, houses are treated as non-tradable goods; therefore, residential preferences will cause the housing price to rise and then change the consumption structure of domestic consumers, mean- ing that the consumption of domestic tradable goods goes down and foreign goods goes up and domestic producers are therefore forced to export more. As consumers＇ real income decreases, the increasing demand for foreign goods is less than the rise in export; therefore, the trade surplus is enhanced. If there is continuous fluctuation in residential preferences, import and export of a country will be influenced and the domestic trade surplus will persist in a long period. Under the condition of fixed exchange rate and capital control, the central bank will accumulate high foreign exchange reserves through sterilization operation. Em- pirical evidence is extended to prove this theory using VAR method and Chinese quarterly data from 1998 to 2011.

关 键 词：住宅偏好 外汇储备 VAR 住宅市场 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]