也论经济危机的可能触发点  

Possible Triggers of Economic Crisis

作　　者：余永定[1] 马骏[2] 哈继铭[3] 邓海清[4] 张斌[5] 王宇[2] 徐以升 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院学部 [2]中国人民银行研究局 [3]高盛中国 [4]中信证券 [5]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [6]第一财经研究院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2014年第4期9-20,共12页International Economic Review

摘　　要：短期(2014-2015年)内,中国发生金融危机的概率非常小。但许多问题已经浮出水面,不排除发生黑天鹅事件的可能性。因此,绝不应当放松警惕。触发危机可能性最大的产品包括债务、信托等各类理财产品和货币基金。房地产是最有可能触发危机的行业。应努力找到一个或多个最脆弱的危机触发点,并预想可能的危机传导路线。政府的政策可以避免一些较小的危机或延缓危机的发生,但如果未能解决其背后反映的问题,则可能导致风险进一步累积,直至造成不可逆的恶性后果。The possibility of China being hit by a financial crisis in the short term(in 2014 and 2015) isslim. However, many problems have emerged and a'black swan'cannot be ruled out. Chinashould get well-prepared for any contingencies. Products that could trigger a crisis includedebt- and trust-related wealth management products and money funds and the real estatesector could most possibly trigger a crisis. A crisis could also be triggered by wrong policies.One or more possible products and sectors that are most fragile and could trigger a crisisshould be ferreted out and the possible transmission mechanism of the crisis should be wellassessed. However, those are only the first small step of the ordeal of crisis management. Evenif there would not be any major crisis, China should not be blindly optimistic. The governmentcan devise policies to avoid some small crises or postpone the eruption of a crisis, but if it failsto solve the problems behind the danger of crisis, then risks could continue to accumulate untilit causes irreversible severe consequences.

关 键 词：中国经济危机 危机触发点 债务 信托 货币基金 

分 类 号：F832.59[经济管理—金融学]