发展中国家森林减排政策的选择  

Choices of Forest Emission Reduction Policies in Developing Countries

作　　者：盛济川[1,2] 曹杰[1,2] 周慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2014年第8期115-120,共6页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程;国家自然科学基金(71303123;71203099;U0970165);国家社科基金(13CGL094);教育部人文社科基金(13YJCZH148;13YJC790225);江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2012JDXM012)

摘　　要：通过对2005—2010年巴西、中国、印度、印度尼西亚和墨西哥五个发展中大国REDD+监测成本与不确定性的仿真研究发现,对REDD+收益影响最大的因素是监测误差,而碳信用价格和可变监测成本相对较小。同时,一国过去的毁林率或造林率会对REDD+潜在收益产生重要影响,高毁林率或高造林率的国家从REDD+中获益更多,而低毁林率或低造林率的国家所获收益较少,因而需要采用多种方法对现有REDD+体系进行改进才能保证其得到有效实施。The simulation study is conducted for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Mexico （2005-2010）, which demonstrates that the potential to generate benefits from REDD ＋ depends highly on the magnitude of the monitoring error while assessment costs and the price of carbon credits play minor roles. Meanwhile, the deforestation rates or afforestation rates in the past would have an important impact on the potential benefits from REDD ＋ for countries. Countries with high deforestation rates or high afforestation rates can gain more revenues from REDD ＋ than other countries with low deforestation rates or low afforestation rates. Therefore, a variety of approaches should be adopted to improve existing REDD ＋ system in order to ensure its effective implementation.

关 键 词：REDD+ 毁林 气候变化 监测成本 

分 类 号：F307[经济管理—产业经济]