我国能耗结构低碳优化的情景分析  

Research on Low-carbon Optimization of Energy Consumption Structure Based on Scenario Analysis

作　　者：王韶华[1] 于维洋[1] 张伟[2] 范德成[3] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]东北大学秦皇岛分校经贸学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2014年第8期121-126,共6页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：河北省软科学研究计划项目"河北省能源消费结构低碳优化研究"(134576266);河北省社会科学基金项目"河北省能源消费结构和产业结构低碳协调的机制与评价研究"(HB14GL008);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题"基于低碳经济的能源结构优化研究"(20122304110018);教育部人文社会科学研究项目"基于低碳经济的节能减排实现路径与绩效评价研究"(13YJA630016)

摘　　要：本文利用目标规划方法构建了能源消耗结构优化模型,对我国2020年的能源消耗结构优化进行情景分析。结果表明:1政策情景下,能耗结构优化并不能实现2020年碳减排承诺,其贡献潜力为80.87%,只是增加电力供给量并不能实现减排承诺,其贡献潜力为88.74%;2低碳情景下,2020年碳强度将降至0.3916728吨碳/万元,低于减排承诺目标水平;3能耗结构在短期内仍呈现以煤炭消耗为主的特征;4能耗结构优化很难同时兼顾节能和减排。This paper uses goal programming method to build the optimization model of energy consumption structure, and makes the optimization simulation of energy consumption structure in 2020. Results are as follows. Firstly, in the policy scenario, optimization of energy consumption structure can not reach the emission reduction commitment of 2020, which can contribute 80. 87%. Secondly, in the low carbon scenario, the carbon intensity would drop to 3. 916728 ton carbon per 1000 yuan （RMB）, below the target level. Thirdly, the energy consumption structure will still be dominated by coal consumption in short time. Fourthly, energy conservation and emission reduction are tough to be achieved at the same time by the optimization of energy consumption structure.

关 键 词：能耗结构优化 碳强度 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]