基于GIS的“树流感”在中国潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potentially suitable distributions of sudden oak death in China based on GIS technology

作　　者：刘诚[1,2,3] 曹春香[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]公共卫生领域空间信息技术应用研究中心,北京100101

出　　处：《科学通报》2014年第18期1732-1747,共16页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171330);国家高技术研究发展计划(2013AA12A302)资助

摘　　要："树流感"的学名是栎树猝死病,该病自1996年在美国加利福尼亚州首次暴发以来,已造成了欧洲及北美大量林木的死亡.引起"树流感"的病菌栎树猝死病菌(Phytophthora ramorum)具有传播速度快、传播方式多、寄主种类繁多、症状表现缓慢、隔离与防控非常困难等特点,因此急需提前预测该病在我国的潜在适生区从而及时采取措施预防该病的传入与扩散.本文选取影响病菌繁殖与传播的4个气象因子(累年月均最高温、累年月均最低温、累年月均降水量、累年月均相对湿度),基于AHP-模糊综合评价方法和气候相似性分析方法,预测"树流感"在我国的适生度,综合2种方法的适生度分布预测结果,并把该结果与"树流感"潜在寄主植物分布进行叠置分析,得到"树流感"在我国的潜在分布区.结果表明,2种方法综合比2种方法各自得到的潜在最适宜区域面积都有一定的减小;但不管哪种方法,得到"树流感"在中国的适生分布从西南往东北方向都是呈降低的趋势,在靠近沿海纬度较低的区域,适生度明显较高.最终得到"树流感"潜在最适宜区域包括福建、江西、湖南,以及浙江、安徽、湖北、贵州、广西、广东和台湾的部分区域.本文的研究将对提高政府和民众对外来有害生物危害的认识,保障我国森林资源和生态环境、维护经济利益,具有重要的理论意义和实际价值.＂Tree flu＂ has the scientific name ＂Sudden Oak Death＂ （SOD）. This disease, which initially broke out in California in 1996, has caused the death of thousands of trees in Europe and North America. The pathogen causing SOD, which has a broad and diverse host range, may be spread or dispersed by various means. The symptoms manifest slowly and the disease is difficult to control. Therefore, preventive measures such as predicting the potentially suitable distributions should be taken as soon as possible in case SOD spreads to China. In this paper, we selected climate variables that are strongly correlated to SOD： precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity. A comprehensive evaluation by analytic hierarchy process fuzzy mathematics and climate similarity theory were used to predict the potential distributions of SOD in China by synthesizing the results of these two methods overlain with the host distribution. The results showed that even though the area of susceptibility was reduced, the distribution of SOD exhibited a decreasing trend from the southwest to the northeast for each method, and that coastal regions had a significantly higher susceptibility. Those areas most susceptible to SOD include Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, and parts of Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Taiwan. This research will be of great theoretical significance and practical value in increasing awareness of the dangers of invasive pathogen, ensuring the safety of forest resources and the environment, and in protecting economic benefits.

关 键 词：树流感 栎树猝死病 GIS 潜在适生区 AHP-模糊综合评价 气候相似性 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]