基于系统分析原理对工业企业总体地震灾害的预测  

Prediction of Seismic Disaster of Overall Industrial Enterprises Based on System Analysis

作　　者：杨维国[1] 徐国彬[1] 张文革[2] 

机构地区：[1]北方交通大学土建学院 [2]冶金部建筑研究总院抗震所

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2001年第1期1-5,共5页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：以设备单体在一定地震裂度下的破坏概率为基础 ,应用相关的概率论知识和系统分析方法 ,根据系统的网络功能图 ,得到系统总体的震害预测。在此基础上 ,对系统的薄弱环节进行分析 ,从而为系统的抗震加固提供科学、合理的依据。此方法的建立使我国企业总体的震害预测和抗震加固变得科学、方便、可行。Based on the method of system analysis and the probability theory concerned, using the chart of network function of the system, provided that the destruction probability of each unit under certain earthquake intensity is known, the prediction of seismic disaster is worked out. Then, analysis is done on the weak link of the system to obtain the scientific and reasonable criteria for anti seismic reinforcement. This method makes the prediction of seismic disaster and anti seismic reinforcement for overall industrial enterprises more scientific, feasible and easy to operate.

关 键 词：概率 工业企业 系统分析 地震灾害 预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] X43[天文地球—固体地球物理学]