测震学多项指标综合预测概率分析  

Synthetical prediction probability analysis of seismological multi-time indices

作　　者：顾瑾平[1] 钱家栋[1] 王琤琤[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036 [2]江苏省地震局,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《地震》2001年第2期46-52,共7页Earthquake

基　　金：地震科学联合基金会重点资助项目!( 95-0 7-4 31 )

摘　　要：通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研 ,为进一步提取前兆信息 ,选择了 7项测震学指标 :频次、地震蠕变、 b值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比 ,进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系 ,得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重 ,按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果 (1 970年以来 )表明 ,对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的 R值评估超过 0 .By means of single item index, 7 seismological indices, including frequency, earthquake creeps, b value, average magnitude, η value, GL value and modulation ratio, are selected for synthetical analysis in order to extract the further precursory information. The time space scanning is made for all seismological indices. Considering the fuzzy relation between space unit anomaly and the location of moderate strong earthquakes, the condition probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes after the anomaly appearance in each unit has been obtained. Then the index weighting of the synthetical probability is inferred based on the prediction efficiency of each single index in the history, from which the weighted synthetical probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes is obtained by using the different space units and different time window according to Bayes rule. The results (since 1970) indicate that R value of prediction efficiency of synthetical probability method is greater than 0.5.

关 键 词：测震学指标 预测效能 模糊关系 条件概率 加权综合效率 频次 地震蠕变 B值 调制比 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] P315.6[天文地球—固体地球物理学]