拉丁美洲经济前景预测  

PROSPECT OF LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY

作　　者：苏振兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2001年第2期1-7,共7页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：1991～ 1999年 ,拉美经济年均增长 3 .2 % ,人均产值年均增长 1.5 % ,依然是在较低的水平上徘徊。拉美经济 90年代运行的突出特点是两起两落 ,呈现出明显的周期性。从拉美地区经济 90年代的运行情况和当前存在的问题来看 ,对今后一段时间拉美经济前景产生影响的主要因素有 :经济改革的指导思想和政策取向 ;经济周期的变动 ;国际环境的变化 ;拉美国家间的不平衡发展 ;在预测整个拉美地区的经济前景时 ,对于拉美国家间的不平衡发展这个因素始终不能忽略。基于上述几方面的因素 ,估计在下个 10年中 ,会有更多的拉美国家达到 6%的年增长率 ,整个地区的平均增长率将高于 90年代 ,很可能是在 4%至 5 %之间。From 1991 to 1999, the annual economic growth rate in Latin America averaged 3.2% and the annual rate of per capita GDP grew by 1.5%, still pacing up and down at a relatively low level. Latin American economy in the decade was characterized by two rounds of rise and fall, displaying an obvious cyclicity. Basing on the operations of Latin American economy in 1990s and its current problems, a few factors influencing the prospect of Latin American economy in a period of time can be summarized: 1) Economic reform as the orientation in policy and guiding ideology. The 'second generation' reforms have been brewing in Latin American countries since the mid-1990s. a new tendency arises from the process that Latin American economists and influential international and regional institutions have come to share more points of view on certain major issues. 2) Economic cycles. Recent documents by ECLAC have clearly indicated two cycles of Latin American economy in 1990s, i.e., the cycle from 1990 to 1995 and the one from 1995 to 1999. It also pointed out that the third cycle began at the fourth quarter 0f 1999. 3) International environment. the downturn of US and European economic growth is surely to impose a negative impact upon the exports of Latin America. But the overestimation of the impact should be avoided. 4) The uneven developments among Latin American countries. On the basis of the above-mentioned factors, it can be expected that more countries in Latin America will reach a growth rate of 6% in the next decade and the average rate each year in the whole region will be higher than in 1990s, reaching 4%~5%.

关 键 词：拉丁美洲 经济发展 发展前景 预测 

分 类 号：F173.032[经济管理—世界经济]