小麦赤霉病流行程度海温预报模式的研究  

ON THE SEA TEMPERATURE PREDICATION MODELS OF THE PREVAILLING LEVEL OF WHEAT SCAB

作　　者：赵圣菊 姚彩文[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象局气象科学研究院 [2]农业部病虫测报站

出　　处：《植物病理学报》1989年第4期229-234,共6页Acta Phytopathologica Sinica

基　　金：国家气象科学基金

摘　　要：小麦赤霉病的流行程度与外界天气气候条件有密切的关系。海洋是造成长期天气异常最可能的热源。太平洋海域热状况的异常,必然影响长江中下游地区的天气异常,从而影响赤霉病的流行程度。所以根据前期海温,能较早地预测未来该病流行趋势。其方法和结果如下: 1.以长江中下游地区小麦赤霉病发病率为预报对象。2.对小麦赤霉病发病前期和同期,上年1月至当年5月北太平洋逐月海面水温资料进行相关分析。得到了几十个高相关海区,以此作为待选因子。3.采用逐步回归方法,通过电子计算机建立了长江中下游地区小麦赤霉病流行程度长期预报模式,得到了好的结果。这说明用前期海温直接预报小麦赤霉病流行程度是可行的。There is a very close relationship between the prevailling level of wheatscab and meteorological conditions.The ocean as a most probable heat sourcegives rise to a long term abnormal weather,it is out of question that theabnormal heat variation in the Pacific Ocean will cause weather abnormal inthe areas along median and lower reaches of the Changjiang River,thusaffecting its prevailling level.It is therefore possfble to forecast an earlyepiphytotics of the wheat scab through observing sea temperature.Method andresults are as follows: 1. The predication relies on the incidence of wheat scab in the areas alongmedian and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. 2. In the correlation analysis of the water temperature in North Pacific Ocean from January of last year to May of this year month by month (theprevious and the current outbreaking period of wheat scab) there are severaltens of seaareas highly correlated to the predication and may be used as fac-tors to be chosen. 3. By using the step wise regression technique and electronic computor,long-range predication models of the epiphytotic level of wheat scab in theareas along median and lower reaches of the Changjiang River have been setup.The preliminary results show that a desirable direct forecast of the epiphy-totic level of wheat scab can be achieved by using the previous sea temper-ature as the predictor.

关 键 词：小麦 赤霉病 流行程度 北太洋海温 长期预报模式 

分 类 号：S435.121.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S431.21[农业科学—植物保护]