丹江口水库诱发地震趋势研究  

RESEARCH ON THE INDUCED EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY IN DANJIANGKOU RESERVOIR

作　　者：黄乃安[1] 张绍波[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉水利电力学院

出　　处：《华南地震》1991年第4期67-74,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：本文研究了丹江口水库地震的特征和地震地质条件。据此,应用灰色系统方法,建立了水库地震的灰色聚类预测模型及水库地震趋势的灰色灾变预测模型。运用灰色关联分析原理研究了水库规模与水库地震震级的关系。结果表明,丹江口水库的4.7级地震是第一期工程的最大地震,第二期工程竣工蓄水后诱发地震的最大震级不超过5.5级。该库坝按原定抗震烈度Ⅷ度设防是合理的。This paper studies the earthquake character and seismo-geologic conditions in Danjiangkou reservoir. Based upon this study, the model of grey clustering to forecast reservoir earthquakes is established and another model of grey catastrophy to predict the tendency of reservoir earthquake is formulated by introducing the grey system method. The relation between reservoir scale and earthquake magnitude is studied by using the grey connection analysis. The earthquake of M = 4.7 occurred in Danjiangkou reservoir is the largest earthquake in th the first phase of the project. The maximum induced earthquake will not be more than M=5.5 when the water level rises after the accomplishment of the second phase of the project. It is reasonable to design the dam according to the original antiseismic intensity Ⅷ.

关 键 词：丹江口水库 灰色聚类方法 地震趋势 水库诱发地震 地震震级 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]