大地震临震预测的研究进展  

THE PROGRESS OF FORECAST RESEARCH ON IMPENDING VIOLENT EARTHQUAKES

作　　者：任振球[1] 李均之[2] 曾小苹[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]北京工业大学,北京100022 [3]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地学前缘》2001年第2期217-223,共7页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：中国科学技术攀登项目!特别支持费 ;联合国"减灾科学与公共管理相结合全球计划"经费资助

摘　　要：短临地震预报尤其是临震预报 ,是当今国内外公认的世界性科学难点。文章综述了中国科学家从多学科交叉和内外因耦合的科学途径 ,已在大地震临震信号方面获得了次声波异常、地应力突跳、虎皮鹦鹉跳跃异常、地电和地磁异常、卫星红外异常、重力高频脉冲等临震预测的手段。笔者通过典型分析和普查对比各种地球物理因子和各种天文因子可能影响的整体研究 ,找到了大地震临震的主要触发因子———以月亮为主的非经典引潮力共振的异常叠加。在此基础上 ,采取内外因耦合的途径和方法 ,在 6a多来联合进行的临震预测内部试验表明 ,地震三要素均基本正确的成功率已达40 %。最后 ,还对临震预报问题提出了一些看法。Short term and impending earthquake predictions are still well known hard challenges in the world This paper summarizes the study progress on the impending earthquake prediction by Chinese scientists from the method of multi subject intersection and the internal and external factors coupling Depending on very hard work during recent years, they get some important signals of predicting impending earthquakes, including the anomalies of infrasonic sound wave, crustal stress, behavior of budgerigars, general geoelectric, geomagnetic, satellite heat infrared and high frequency gravity pulsation The authors have discovered an important triggering factor of a violent earthquakes—the abnormal superimposition of tide generating force resonance from typical analysis and compared all astronomical and geophysical factors. Based on these, the examinational immediate prediction has been carried out by combining the tide generating force resonance with the impending signals for last six years The results show that the successful ratio of three basic elements of earthquake prediction accounts for 40% At last, the authors give some views on the impending violent earthquake problem

关 键 词：临震预测 临震信号 触发因子 地震预报 次声波异常 地应力 地磁 地电 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]