全球气候变化对宁夏春小麦生长和产量的影响  

Effect of global climate change on spring wheat growth in Ningxia

作　　者：雷水玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业气象研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2001年第2期33-36,40,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

摘　　要：将公认的全球大气环流模型 ( GCMs)的输出结果输入到随机天气模型中 ,生成宁夏地区2 0 10年和 2 0 2 0年逐日天气数据 ,再与其它资料一起输入农业技术传播决策支持系统 ( DSSAT3)中 ,模拟未来气候情景下宁夏春小麦的生产 ,得出气候变化会使宁夏小麦生长期缩短 ,产量降低 ,水分利用效率降低 ,而 CO2 浓度增加又会使这一现象得到缓解的结论。Wheat growth in Ningxia in the future is simulated and the climate scenarios were generated from Climate Generator Model and GCMs, when all the data the model needed are input. The simulated result shows that the growing season of wheat will be shorten and the yield will be obviously decreased in Ningxia in the future because of global climate change, but this yield reduction will be relieved because of the increasing concentration of CO 2. These results will be suitable for the area with similar climate characteristics.

关 键 词：春小麦 生长 产量 模拟 宁夏 全球气候变化 全球大气环流模型 农业技术传播决策支持系统 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]