特大旱涝长期定量预测的研究  

Study on Long Term Quantitative Prediction for Exceptional Drought and Waterlogging

作　　者：范垂仁[1] 顾洪政[1] 张文跃[2] 

机构地区：[1]长春自然灾害预测研究服务中心,吉林长春130022 [2]吉林省防汛机动抢险队,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《吉林水利》2001年第2期1-5,共5页Jilin Water Resources

摘　　要：本文就太阳活动与地球表面旱涝灾旱之间的对应性关系，寻觅预测旱涝灾害的规律。从影响旱涝的物理机制入手，阐明太阳黑子是预测的理想指标。运作中选用３２６６个月黑子数和１８００多站年的国内外特大干旱、暴雨及其灾情发生时间，用多学科知识交叉分析设计流程框图．寻求相互间的内在联系，并建立起各种预测模型和定性定量的分析成果。成果表明：大阳黑子月年变化对我国江河最大洪水呈线性关系，验证我国１９９６、１９９８年大洪水效果良好，此种方法有预见期长、精度高、能预报特大旱、涝、暴雨发生时间等四大优点。In this paper, the authors discussed the relationship between drought and waterlogging disasters and sunspot, clarified that sunspot is an ideal index for predicting these disasters. The prediction method has four advantages, including that prediction term is long, prediction precision is high, and the method can be used to predict exceptional drought and waterlogging as well as rainstorm time of taking place.

关 键 词：地球物理效应 旱涝灾害 长期预报 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]