台风活动对ECMWF副高中期活动预报能力的影响  

EFFECT OF TYPHOON ACTION ON THE FORECAST ABILITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MIDDLE-RANGE ACTION OF EUROPE NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCT

作　　者：姚叶青[1] 王兴荣[1] 程小泉[1] 陈小萍[1] 尚瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象局,安徽230061

出　　处：《气象科学》2001年第2期230-234,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文通过统计分析发现 :欧洲中心中期数值预报 ( ECMWF)产品可作为预报副高中期活动的重要依据。然而 ,对台风环流的处理失当可能是导致欧洲中心数值预报产品 12 0°E588线北界 72小时预报产生大于 5个纬距严重错误的主要原因 ( 2 2 / 38)。当台风进入关键区 ,即进入近海和大陆区时 ,以当日分析场作为初始场的欧洲中心中期数值预报产品 12 0°E588线北界 72小时预报基本都发生大于 2个纬距的错误 ( 14/ 19)。反之 ,则很少发生错误。当台风生成或消亡时 ,以当日分析场作为初始场的欧洲中心数值预报产品 12 0°E588线北界 72小时预报也将发生大于 2个纬距的错误 ( 2 3/ 2 8)。但是台风活动对 130°E588线北界预报影响不大。In this paper,by the statistical analysis,it is found that forecast of the subtropical high middle range action can be made according to Europe numerical forecast product.While Europe numerical forecast product forecasts north latitude of 588 line 120°E after 72 hours,the main reason of its error beyond 5 degrees latitude is that ECMWF deals with typhoon circutation improperly(22/38).When the typhoon arrives the offshore or land region,the error of 2 degrees is almost the error of Europe numerical forecast product to forecast the north latitude of 588 line 120°E degrees east latitude after 72 hours,if the analytic field of this day is used as initial field(14/19).Otherwise,there are few mistakes.When the typhoon takes place or wither away,there is error of 2 degrees too(23/28).But typhoon action has few influence on forecast of the north latitude of 588 line on 130°E.

关 键 词：欧洲中心数值预报产品 副高 误差 气压预报 台风活动 

分 类 号：P457.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]