本世纪初我国大陆7级大震危险性研究  

Study on the probable hazards caused by earthquake M≥7 occurring in the continent of China at the early in the 21st century

作　　者：李海华[1] 沈繁銮[1] 吴德珍[1] 袁锡文 王正尚[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南省地震局,海南海口570203 [2]广东省地震局,广东广州510070

出　　处：《华南地震》2001年第2期1-8,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：地震大形势研究结果表明，我国大陆地区（含边境）１９９９年已进入为期１２年的相对平静幕，幕内可能发生３次７级地震，最大震级不超过７．２级。首发７级地震为２０００年６月８日缅甸７级（位于中缅边境）。预计第二个７级地震危险时间在２００５±０．５年。第三个在２００８年前后。分析了我国主要地震区强震概率增益，给出了３个危险地点。未来３年即２００１～２００３年是相对安全时段，我国大陆不会发生７级以上破坏性地震。２０１１～２０２０年可能进入新世纪第一个７级大地震相对活跃幕，预计该幕持续１０年， 可发生１０次７～７.６级大震。After analyzing the general earthquake tendency in the continent of China (including the areas of border) , we found that it had entered the relatively quiescent episode about 12 years in 1999 in which there may be 3 earthquakes about MS7 but the maximum is less than 7.2. The first event is the MS = 7.0 occurred in Burma in 2000. The probable time of the second will be in 2005 ( ?0.5 years) , and the third will be about in 2008. In this paper, the possibility increase of strong earthquake is analyzed in the main seismic regions in China. Furthermore, the 3 risk areas and the estimation of the disaster are given. It is the relatively safe period from 2001 to 2003, so there will not be earthquakes MS≥7 in the continent of China. It likely will enter the first relatively active episode of the new century during 2011 - 2020, this episode will last about 10 years and there will be 10 earthquakes MS = 7.0-7.6 within it.

关 键 词：21世纪 中国大陆 地震危险性 地震气候 地震幕 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]