具有历史洪水时P-Ⅲ分布线性矩法的研究  

Study on L-moment Estimation Method for P-Ⅲ Distribution with Historical Flood

作　　者：陈元芳[1] 沙志贵 陈剑池 陈民[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源及环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [3]水利部天津勘测设计院,天津300222

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2001年第4期76-80,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：为了填补国内空白 ,基于美国学者Hosking1990年提出的线性矩法 (L moment) ,专门就线性矩法在P Ⅲ分布下参数估计的算法 ,与传统参数估计方法在统计性能方面的差异进行介绍与分析计算 ,提出了具有历史洪水时该法的计算公式 .大量统计试验结果表明 ,线性矩法确实具有良好性能 ,较矩法好得多 ,与概率权重矩法 (PWM )结果很接近 。The L moment method was proposed by Hosking in 1990. It is a new and good method for flood frequency analysis, on which many studies have been performed abroad. In this paper, the procedure of L moment method for P Ⅲ distribution is first introduced, and a formula of L moment method for P Ⅲ distribution with historical information is also proposed.A comparison with conventional estimation by the Monte Carlo method shows that the L moment method is of good statistical performance,that the result from it is almost the same as that from PWM, and that the new formula is effective.

关 键 词：参数估计 线性矩 历史洪水 不偏性 有效性 

分 类 号：TV122.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]