识别合适的降雨强度-历时-频率模型的方法  

Method for Identifying Appropriate Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Models

作　　者：陆宝宏[1] 汤有光[2] 陆晓明[3] 李伟[1] 邱绍伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源及环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]香港科技大学 [3]南京水文及水资源分局,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2001年第4期109-115,共7页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：提出一种基于IDF模型对未来事件预测能力来选择合适的IDF模型的方法 .通过对香港气象台 13个不同历时的年最大降雨资料的数据分析 ,发现IDF模型的预测能力取决于它的数学形式。Rainfall intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationships are often used to determine the design storms in water resources projects.Several mathematical models have been used in practice to describe such relationships.Based on the predicting capability of models for future events,a procedure for the selection of an appropriate rainfall IDF is presented in this paper.Numerical analysis of annual maximum rainfall data for different periods at the Hong Kong Observatory shows that the predicting capability of an IDF model depends on its mathematical forms,the types of rainfall,and the method for the estimation of model parameters.

关 键 词：水利工程 降雨强度 IDF数学模型 交叉检验 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]