基于新古典增长理论的两产业系统动力学模型及对于经济增长问题的研究  

A Dual-Industry System Dynamics Model Based on Neoclassic Economic Growth Theory and Its Studying on Economic Growth

作　　者：贾建国[1] 王其藩[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》1998年第4期54-62,共9页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

摘　　要：在任何时候考察一国的宏观经济增长 ,总是可以发现新兴的、快速增长的部分和传统的、已发展起来的部分 ;而且往往正是这两部分的相互作用和增长导致了经济资源的流动和分布、经济结构的变化、以及整个经济的持续增长。本文将一国的宏观经济简化为两个产业部门 ,即新兴产业和传统产业 ,基于新古典增长理论建立两产业的系统动力学模型 ;并在设定的定价方式和投资策略下模拟研究了增长路径及其稳定性 ,两产业的相互作用 ,资本和劳动力的流动和分布 。Whenever an economic growth problem is observed, a new and rapidly developing sector and a traditional or developed sector could be found, and often it's just these two sectors' interaction and their increases which bring to economic resource's transferring and re-distributing, economic structure's changing, and whole economy sustainable growth. In this paper, by simplifying a macro-economy into two industries, we set up a dual-industry system dynamics model based on neoclassic economic growth theory, and under given hypothesis of price determination and investment, we successfully simulated the economic growth path, the interaction of two sectors, the capital and labors' flow and distribution, and the economic structure's evolution.

关 键 词：经济增长 经济结构 系统动力学 模型 新兴产业 新古典增长理论 传统产业 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F061.2