煤层气项目风险性分析方法及应用研究  

VENTURE ANALYSIS METHOD OF COALBED METHANE PROJECT AND ITS APPLICATION

作　　者：杨永国[1] 秦勇[1] 姜波[1] 张冬明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2001年第3期89-91,共3页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目!(4 9772 131);国家教育部高等学校骨干教师资助项目

摘　　要：由于煤层气项目投资大、建设周期长、生产过程复杂 ,是一个复杂的系统工程 ,因此存在很大的风险性。使经济评价成为煤层气项目立项的前提 ,风险性分析则是煤层气项目成功的保证。文章根据煤层气项目的特点 ,研究了煤层气项目风险性分析的现代数学方法。利用模糊概率评价方法建立了煤层气项目风险评价模型。结合实际例子 ,分别对煤层气价格、成本和投资等单因素 ,作 - 2 0 %～ 2 0 %范围内变化时 ,财务内部收益率、动态投资回收期和财务净现值等指标的敏感性分析 ;以财务内部收益率作为风险性评价指标 ,煤层气价格、成本和投资为风险因素变量 ,对项目的风险性进行评价。研究结果表明 ,价格是影响项目经济性的最敏感因素 ,评价区煤层气项目风险程度中等 。Economic evaluation is the precondition of developing a coalbed methane project and venture analysis is the guarantee of a successful project. According to the characters of coalbed methane project, a modern mathematical method of analyzing the venture of this kind of project is studied in the paper. In combination with an example, the sensitivity analysis of the indexes, such as financial internal income rate, dynamic investment recovery period and financial net present value, etc., are carried out when each of these factors, as the price, cost and investment of coalbed methane, range from -20% to 20% respectively. The project venture is evaluated by taking the financial internal income rate as the venture evaluation index and taking the price, cost and investment of coalbed methane as the risk factor variables. This research shows that the price is the most sensitive factor affecting the economy of project, the venture degree of coalbed methane project in this example is moderate and the result evaluated may provide a reference to the policy-making departments.

关 键 词：煤层气项目 经济评价 模糊数学 敏感性分析 风险性分析 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]