杨树冰核细菌溃疡病的测报技术  

The Forecast Technique of Poplar INA Bacterial Canker

作　　者：董爱荣[1] 刘雪峰[1] 薛煜[1] 邵忠文[1] 项存悌[1] 苏贵林 潘淑英 姜国义 张景华 李军 杨晓林 姜希德 林海波 韩维新 王传伟 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040 [2]黑龙江省大庆市林业局 [3]黑龙江省阿城市林业局 [4]黑龙江省肇东市林业局

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2001年第3期120-122,共3页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家"九五"科技攻关子专题

摘　　要：运用逐步回归分析方法．建立了多元线性的中期预报方程．入选的自变量有初始病情ｙ０、年平均温度ｔ１、温湿比ｘ１和湿雨比ｘ２ ４个因子．该模型可以预测第二年的病情指数。根据病情指数随时间增长的趋势．选用灰色方法建立了ＧＭ（１，１）数学模型。模型中的二个参数ａ＝０．３７８６，ｕ＝８．４８５ ３．按距离贴近原则。可作出中长期预报。Using stepwise variable selection method, the authors set up the multi-variant linear regression forecasting equation, initial disease index y0. annual average temperature ti. the ratio of temperature to relative humidity xl and the ratio of relative humidity to precipitation x2 are selected into the model. it can predict the next year's disease index. Use grey method. the authors set up the GM(l. l) model. the values of the two parameters in the model .are:a= -0. 378 6. u=8. 485 3. According to the rule nestled up against the distance. it can make middle or long period forecast.

关 键 词：杨树 冰核细菌溃疡病 预测预报 

分 类 号：S763.1[农业科学—森林保护学] S763.721.1[农业科学—林学]