不同热力背景对城市降雨(暴雨)的影响(Ⅱ)──降雨时序的混沌分析  

Effects of different thermal backgrounds on urban rainfall(rainstorm) (Ⅱ): chaos analysis in time series data of rainfall

作　　者：陈云浩[1] 史培军[1] 李晓兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学资源科学研究所,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2001年第3期20-25,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目 (39899374);国家自然科学基金资助项目(30000027)

摘　　要：首先介绍了研究复杂性系统的混沌分析方法，并利用上海城市降雨的时序资料重构了相空间，计算了一系列表征其混沌系数的特征值，对其混沌特征进行了分析。随后，文章进一步探讨在不同热力背景条件下降雨系统混沌特征。研究发现：从自然、低温到高温热力背景其降雨序列之间的可比性依次增大，而表征系统所需的独立变量数目则是依次减小，平均系统可预报尺度依次减小，最大可预报尺度依次增大。Chaos analysis, Which is fully different from traditional method, is introduced for analyzing complexity system. A phase space is rebuilt with time series data of rainfall in Shanghai and the eigenvalues of a series of chaos system are calculated. And then, effects of different thermal backgrounds on feature of rainfall system are discussed in this paper. The research mostly discover as follow: the comparison of rainfall time series and maximal predictable length of rainfall are increased and the numbers of independence variable to token chaos system and average predictable length of rainfall are decreased from nature, low temperature to high temperature thermal backgrounds.

关 键 词：热力背景 降雨 时序 混沌分析 城市 上海市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]