P-σ全球模式的月尺度动力延伸预报试验  

Monthly-Scale Dynamical Extended Forecast Experiments Performed with a P-σ Global Numerical Climate Model

作　　者：钱永甫[1] 郑琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093

出　　处：《大气科学》2001年第5期641-649,共9页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目49735170

摘　　要：用P-σ混合坐标系原始方程模式（Nju—PσM），以观测的瞬时气象要素场作为模式初始场，作了24个月动力延伸预报试验。利用距平符号一致率（P）、距平相关系数（AC）和均方根误差（RMS）对预报结果进行了评估和分析。试验表明 Nju—PσM对月平均环流有一定的预报能力，气候漂移订正和预报结果的线性、抛物线型两种合成方法都对预报效果有明显的改进。把动力延伸预报与年际和月际待续性预报进行对比后，表明动力预报结果的各项评估分均为最高。预报场和实况场的空间滤波和经验正交函数（EOF） 分析表明，模式对大尺度天气系统的预报能力较强，而对较小尺度天气系统的预报能力则差一些。By using a global climate model of Nanjing University with the P-σ vertical coordinate system (Nju--PσM), twenty--four monthly forecasts are conducted started from the real time data set at 00 00 UTC The results of the 500 hPa geopotential height field are assessed and analyzed with the anomaly sign consistency rate (P), the anomaly correlation coefficient (AC) and the root--mean--square error (RMS) It is shown that the Nju--PσM is somewhat skillful in the monthly forecast The forecast skill of the model is remarkably enhanced after the climate drift correction and the weighted assemble are made It is also shown that the dynamical forecasts of the monthly mean 500 hPa heights are obvi- ously better than those of the persistence method The space filtering and the empirically orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of both the predicted and the observed fields indicate that the dynamical ex- tended forecast of the large scale circulation is much better than that of the meso--scale circulation.

关 键 词：全球气候模式 动力延伸预报 气候漂移证正 气象要素 距平相关系数 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]