地震调制比及其在华北地震中短期预报中的应用  

Seismic Modulating Ratio and Its Application to Medium-Short Term Earthquake Prediction in North China

作　　者：王炜[1] 宋先月[1] 谢端[2] 王琤琤[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,上海200062 [2]中国科学技术大学,安徽合肥230026 [3]江苏省地震局,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《地震研究》2001年第3期202-207,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：中国地震局 95- 0 4- 0 9项目

摘　　要：对调制比预报地震方法进行了改进 ,并使用改进的地震调制比rm1 0 对华北地区进行空间扫描。结果表明中强地震前 1年左右的中短期阶段 ,未来震中周围的rm1 0 中期异常区出现明显的收缩或消失 ,一些震例在临震前数月还再次出现rm1 0 异常区。本方法具有较好的中短期预报效果。文中还就rm1 0The earthquake prediction method using seismic modulating ratio is improved and space scan in north China is made by use of improved seismic modulating ration r m10 .The results show that the medium-term anomaly area of r m10 around future epicenter obviously reduced or disappeared in the medium short-term about one year before moderate-strong earthquake;the anomalous areas of r m10 appeared again several months before some earthquakes.Some problems about medium-short term earthquake prediction using r m10 are also discussed in the paper.

关 键 词：地震调制比 引潮力 空间扫描 地震中短期预报 触发作用 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]