强震成组活动与潮汐力调制触发  

Group Strong Earthquakes and Triggering by Tidal Stress

作　　者：张国民[1] 李丽[1] 黎凯武[1] 马宏生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036

出　　处：《中国地震》2001年第2期110-120,共11页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目<大陆强震机理与预测>的资助

摘　　要：本文应用构造块体成组孕震模型的研究结果 ,探讨了中国大陆MS≥ 7.0地震的成组活动和引潮力的调制触发关系。研究表明 :我国陆区 7级以上强震明显受潮汐力的调制触发 ,且主要表现为对活跃期内 (即成组发生的 ) 7级强震的调制触发。平静期内的 7级以上地震基本不受潮汐力触发 ,而活跃期内 82 .4 %的 7级强震发生在受潮汐力触发的月相期 ,比本底概率高出 36.4 %。因此 ,潮汐力的调制触发对于强震活跃期的判断和活跃期内强震的临震 (时间 )预测有实际意义。文章还分析了潮汐力触发与强震活动的区域动力学环境之间的关系 ,并用构造块体成组孕震模型讨论了潮汐力对强震活动触发作用的力学机制。The results obtained with the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks are further used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the M S≥7.0 events in the Chinese mainland and the modulation and triggering from the earth tides. The research shows that the M S≥7.0 events in the Chinese mainland have been significantly triggered by the tidal stress , especially within the active period with group strong earthquakes. In the quiescence period of strong earthquakes, no M S≥7.0 events were triggered, while within the active period, over 82.4% of strong earthquakes took place within a special moon phase, which is 36.4% higher than the average. Therefore, the modulation and triggering of tidal stress can be used to distinguish the active periods and to forecast the time of the strong earthquakes within the active period. The relationship between the tidal triggering and the tectonic dynamic conditions is investigated and the mechanism of the modulation is simulated with the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks.

关 键 词：成组地震 潮汐作用 孕震模型 强震 调制触发作用 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]