Jolly-Seber法中种群存活率估算的探讨  

Discussion on the Survivorship Estimation for the Jolly-Seber Model

作　　者：宛新荣[1] 钟文勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院动物研究所农业虫鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室,北京100080

出　　处：《动物学杂志》2001年第5期36-39,共4页Chinese Journal of Zoology

基　　金：中科院知识创新项目 (KSCX2 1 0 3);国家自然科学基金重点项目 (No.39730 0 90 );中国科学院生物特别支持资助项目 (STZ 0 1 0 6 )

摘　　要：在Jolly Seber法中 ,存活率为其核心参数之一。一些作者指出 ,采用Jolly Seber法估算标志重捕数据有时候会出现存活率大于 1的情形。本文就这一情形做了相应的分析 ,认为产生这一现象的原因为标志个体间不具有等捕性或等存活率所致。在设计标志重捕取样的野外调查中 。The Survivorship estimation is one of the most important parameters in the Jolly Seber model. As it has been revealed by other authors, the value of the survival rate obtained by the Jolly-Seber estimation may exceed 1 in some cases. According to current analysis made on this problem, we found that it was due to fact that the unequal trappability and the unequal survival rate occur between the marked animals. In order to solve that problem, we should try to improve the recapture possibility to increase the estimating accuracy in the experimental design of capture recapture census.

关 键 词：Jolly-Seber法 种群 存活率 估计 重捕率 标志重捕 野生动物 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]