预测油田开发指标的一种因子型增长曲线  

Growth Curve of Factor Type to Predict Oilfield Development Indexes．

作　　者：俞启泰[1] 罗洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油 石油勘探开发科学研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2001年第4期323-324,共2页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：根据预测油田开发指标的增长曲线的定义，提出了一种新型t^b＋c^t因子型增长曲线。推导了其对应的产量Q_t的计算式。研究表明，（N_p ／N_(R max)）Q_(tmax)最大变化范围为0～0．545 0，说明其峰值产量可出现在中期靠后，因而符合绝大多数油田的产量变化规律；其Q_t —N_p关系曲线在后期可向下凹或向上凹，且待定系数有4个，因而描述产量变化更加灵活。庆祖集油田的的计算实例表明，计算结果与实际值符合得相当好。可以认为它是一种预测功能很强的增长曲线。： In terms of definition of growth curve used for predicting oilfield development indexes， a new growth curve of (t^b＋c^t) factor type is proposed， and the calculating formula of corresponding output Q_t is derived in this paper． The study showed that the maximum variation range for (N_p／N_(Rmax))Q_(tmax) is 0～0．5450， which indicates its peak output may appear in a bit later of middle stage of development， so it agrees with the output variation regularities for absolute most of oilfields． It＇s Q_t vs N_p curve could be concave upward or downward during the middle stage＇s later time． It has four undetermined coefficients， so it is more flexible in using for output variation description． The application instance of Qingzhuji oilfield shows that the calculated curves accords with actual values very well． These all showed the proposed growth curve is very strong functional one in prediction．

关 键 词：油田 产量 开发指标 因子型增长曲线 

分 类 号：TE32[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]