油井压裂前后产量递减规律预测方法  

PREDICTION METHOD FOR PRODUCTION DECLINE RULE PRE-AND POST OIL WELLS FRACTURING

作　　者：相荣成[1] 张有才[1] 姚海晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司井下作业分公司,黑龙江大庆163453

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2001年第5期32-33,共2页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

摘　　要：采用非线性回归和多元线性回归数学方法 ,建立了以指数递减规律来描述油井压裂前、后产量递减规律的数学模型。利用该方法所建立的模型 ,可实现对特定区块压裂油井的产量历史拟合及预测。为确定油井压裂增油效果和有效期 ,以及评估整个油田开发经济效益提供理论依据。将该方法应用于南一区块 ,结果表明 ,由于单井按指数回归的曲线能较好地描述采油指数的动态递减规律 ,因此模型拟合结果压前符合率为 71 4 % ,压后符合率为 74 7%This paper uses non lineate regression and multivariate linear regression mathematic method to construct a mathematic model which describe the production decline rule of pre and post oil well fracturing with exponent decline rule. This model can realize match and predict the production history of a fractured well in a specific block. It can provide theoretical evidence for the determination of the stimulation oil well fracturing stimulation effect and efficient period and the evaluation of the economic benefit of the whole oil field. This method is applied in Block Nan 1. The curve which is regressed with exponent of single well, so it can describe the dynamic decline rule of production index. The conformity percent of pre fracturing of the matching result of this model is 74 1%, and the conformity percent of post fracturing is 74 7%.

关 键 词：油井压裂 回归方法 预测模型 产量预测 数学模型 增油效果 

分 类 号：TE357.11[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]