国际航运市场运价定量预测方法  

Study on freight index forecasting of international shipping market

作　　者：张林红[1] 陈家源[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2001年第4期32-35,共4页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

摘　　要：为了定量研究及预测国际航运市场运价指数 ,引入了市场综合因数概念 ,从运力供给入手 ,分析航运运价与市场综合因数之间的函数关系及其变化趋势 ,运用 MATLAB软件中的曲线拟合方法编程 ,并调用FORTRAN语言中的最小二乘法曲线拟合程序 ,得出国际航运市场运价定量化预测模型 ,并实际预测出2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 4年运价指数 ,可以看出未来几年运价指数呈现快速复苏趋势 .In order to study and forecast Baltic Freight Index (BFI) of international shipping market, the paper puts forward the use of market integrated factor and shipping supply, then analyze the function relationship and changing trend between freight index and market integrated factor. Through the use of curve imitation method in software of MATLAB and making use of curving imitating computer program of FORTRAN language, the paper brings up a new method for freight index forecasting mathematical model of international shipping market. Then the definite BFI value from year 2001 to 2004 is forecasted, from which we can see that BFI displays a quick reviving trend, so every shipping company should make good use of this rare opportunity to develop themselves.

关 键 词：国际航运市场 运输价格 边际成本 运力供给 市场综合因数 定量 预测方法 

分 类 号：F550.5[经济管理—产业经济] F551