湖泊河蟹渔获量预报方法的研究  

STUDY ON CATCH PREDICTION OF RIVER CRABS (ERIOCHEIR SINENSIS) IN LAKES

作　　者：赵振伦[1] 谢庄[1] 胡小玲 黄宁昌 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学畜牧学系

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报》1991年第1期64-69,共6页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University

摘　　要：本文确定了湖泊河蟹(Eriocheir sinensis H.Milne—EdWards)渔获量的预报方法。单因子预报法:以上年向湖泊放流蟹苗量为依据,结合湖泊的生产性能列出方程(3)。回归分析法:从影响河蟹资源和年产量的众多因素中,筛选出几个最密切的相关因子,列出多元回归方程,洪泽湖为方程(8),高宝湖为方程(9),湖泊水位突变和形成的“瓶颈效应”,对河蟹资源及年产量有不利影响。Two methods of catch prediction of river crabs were studied. (1) The equation of one factor method of catch prediction y=KN is formed according to the previous year's stocking quantity of seed of crab, considering the production property of lakes. (2)The method of multi-regression analysis: some closely related factors selected from many others, which influence the resources of river crabs form equations of catch prediction which vary in Hongzehu and Gaobaohu Lakes:Y_H=-4565.80+0.269N_1+0.122N_2+0.469C+353.029LY_G=56.286+0.327N_1+0.050N_2+0.176CThe sudden change of water level in lakes is a'bottle—neck effect', which reduces the resources and yield of river crabs.

关 键 词：河蟹 渔获量 预报法 回归分析 

分 类 号：S934.2[农业科学—渔业资源]