对T106分析/预报场可预报性的初步分析  

THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSES ON THE RELIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF T106 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING FIELD

作　　者：李翀[1] 王元[1] 潘益农[1] 张录军[1] 于波[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093 [2]江苏省气象局,南京210009

出　　处：《气象科学》2001年第4期379-391,共13页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金项目 ( BK990 2 0 );"973- CHERES"项目 ( G1 9980 4 0 90 7)资助

摘　　要：本文围绕日常天气预报的需求和为区域数值天气预报模式定义天气背景场和初值场的需要 ,针对 92 10工程 MICAPS系统中 T10 6谱模式的客观分析场和预报场的可预报性进行了初步诊断 ,定量分析比较了 T10 6、欧洲中心 ECMWT、华盛顿 KEBC和日本 JAPAN数值模式对天气环流形势和预报的统计误差 ,并初步探讨了模式误差的自身预报问题。文中指出了 T10 6模式的误差源主要来自于其客观分析场的固定误差 ,提出了以集成客观分析场作为的客观分析 。For the need of daily weather prediction and an urgent call for the definition of ambient field as the initial input of regional forecasting model,a diagnostic analysis has been made for the spectra model T106,as well the ECMWF in European Center,the JAPAN model in Japan and the KWBC in the United State.All of them,such as the analyzing and forecasting fields at the standard levels,are indeed provided as the routine output in the MICAPS system of Project 9210. Our analyses are focused on the quantitative comparison of the models in terms of statistical error levels.Meanwhile we also discussed the possibilities to make the forecast of the prediction error in the T106 itself.We found the major error source in T106 model that is actually due to the fixed error existing in the T106 objective analysis field. Finally,a so called assembly objective analysis field is derived from the blending of valid model analysis fields in MICAPS.Such filtered field gives an opportunity for weather forecaster to make correct analysis,and it is also indeed the better initial boundary condition as input being used in the regional forecasting model.

关 键 词：T106模式 客观分析 可预报性 集成客观分析场 数值天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]