分县逐日滚动MOS预报模式研制及其应用  

THE STUDY AND APPLICATION OF DAY TO DAY MOS FORECAST OF SECTORIZED COUNTY

作　　者：范淦清[1] 朱双[1] 韩桂荣[1] 陈德群[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2001年第4期392-398,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文介绍了江苏分县逐日滚动 1～ 5天时效的 MOS预报的研制 ,包括降水的概率 MOS法和量级 MOS法 ,预报量设置、季节分型和样本选择 ,因子的构造及其加工 ,概率统计模型的选择及其因子预选、筛选。最后介绍了 MOS工具在省台The study of day to day MOS forecast of sectorized county in 1 5 days of Jiangsu is introduced in the article.It encloses the probability and ordering MOS methods of precipitation,the selection of forecast factors and sample,the design of forecast order,the separate pattern in season and the selection of probability and staitistics model.The professional application and effect of this MOS forecast method in MICAPS platform of provincial station is also introduced in the end.

关 键 词：分县MOS 逐日滚动预报 MICAPS平台 降水概率 季节分型 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]