影响甘肃马鹿产茸量的气象因素及其回归预测模型  

Meteorological Factors Influencing Hartshorn Harvest and Its Regressive Prediction Model for Cervus elapus kansuensis

作　　者：刘建泉 杨建红 丁国民 

机构地区：[1]甘肃祁连山国家级自然保护区管理局,张掖734000 [2]甘肃省张掖市林业技术推广中心站

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2001年第6期49-52,共4页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

摘　　要：对 4个气象要素的 2 0个指标进行主成分分析 ,结果表明 :5、6月份气温、5、6、7月份相对湿度、6月份日照时数、7月份降水量、5～ 7月份平均气温和平均相对湿度以及平均降水量、5～ 7月份总降水量 11个指标为影响甘肃马鹿产茸量的主要指标 ,5月份为产茸公鹿管理的关键时期 ;对 6个气象指标与 10a的鲜茸产量进行了双重筛选回归 ,并建立了回归模型 :Y =1.172 9+37.72 15X1- 2 7.2 111X2 +3 .35 42X7- 4.6 16 6X8+2 .2 5 5 3X12 +4 .940 3X2 0 (R =0 .9910 )。By means of the main ingredient analysis to 4 meteorological factors for 20 indices, the results show that the air temperature of May and June, the relative humidity of May, June and July, the sunshine of June, the rainfall of July, the average air temperature and average relative humidity as well as average rainfall of May, June and July, the total rainfall of May, June and July are primary indices influencing hartshorn harvest, and May is the key period for hartshorn deer. Regressive prediction model with 6 indices was founded: Y =1.172 9+37.721 5 X 1-27.211 1 X 2+3.354 2 X 7-4.616 6 X 8+2.255 3 X 12 +4.940 3 X 20 ( R =0.991 0).

关 键 词：产茸量 甘肃 马鹿 气象因素 回归模型 鹿茸 

分 类 号：S865.42[农业科学—野生动物驯养]