滇西地震预报实验场及邻区短临预报量化跟踪决策方案  

A Quantitatively Tracing Decision-Making Scenario for Short-impending Prediction in West Yunnan Earthquake Test Site and Nearby

作　　者：金明培 黄绍裘 郭咸华 杨芬 赵家本 

机构地区：[1]滇西地震预报实验场,云南下关671000

出　　处：《地震研究》2001年第4期315-320,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省地震局青年地震科学基金 ( 99-10 )

摘　　要：借鉴了数学上降元法解多元方程的思路 ,分步进行地震三要素的短临预报尝试。首先确定一个较大尺度的研究区域 ,确定所预报震级下限 ,用多条短临预报指标和自适应加权综合集成概率模式预报时间 ;又在有时间预报的前提下 ,利用地震活动性图象确定最危险的具体地点 ;再根据前兆异常幅度和持续时间、异常数量以及宏观异常情况估计可能的震级范围 ,从而初步实现地震的三要素短临预报。该方法具有较好的可操作性。Using a mathematical method of solving multi-equation for reference and trying to perform short-impending of three seismic factors. Namely, first a fairly large sized studying area is determined and then a low limit of predicted magnitude. The multi short-impending prediction indexes and probability mode of comprehensive integration of self-adaptation weight is used to predict the time. Under the precondition of having time prediction, a seismicity pattern is used to determine the most risk location. Then based on the precursory anomalous amplitude, duration time, anomalous quantity and macro anomalies, a possible magnitude is estimated. The three factors of short-impending prediction are primarily realized. This method has a fairly good operability.

关 键 词：短临预报 决策方案 云南 地震预报 地震活动性 前兆异常 震级 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]