地区电网短期负荷预测系统的研究  

THE STUDY ON DISTRICT POWER NETWORK SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING SYSTEM

作　　者：侯凯元[1] 穆钢[1] 杨右虹 惠永杰 

机构地区：[1]东北电力学院,吉林132012 [2]吉林市供电公司,吉林132001

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2001年第5期36-38,45,共4页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：本文根据吉林市电网的实际情况 ,研究开发了一个地区电网短期负荷预测系统。该系统包括多种负荷预测方法 ,可以使运行人员根据负荷变化的具体情况选择预测方法或采用几种方法的组合进行加权预测。文中对各种方法的预测结果进行了分析与对比 ,并在此基础上分析了影响负荷预测精度的主要原因。软件包具有良好的人机界面 ,实用性强 ,已在吉林市供电公司运行较长时间 。In this paper a district power network short-term load forecasting system was studied and developed. The system consisted of several forecasting methods, which could be chosen and weighed flexibly by operators. The forecasting results of forecasting methods were compared, and the main reason affecting forecasting precision was analyzed. The software warp had good man-computer faces and strong practicality. Having been applied for a long time in Jilin City Electric Power Company, it offered effective support to operators.

关 键 词：地区电网 短期负荷预测系统 电力系统 回归预测法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]