台风暴雨客观定量落区预报方法  

A QUANTITATIVE AND OBJECTIVE METHOD FOR FORECASTING TYPHOON RAINGUSH AND ITS AREA

作　　者：郑和文[1] 朱全明 耿慧[1] 朱定真[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台

出　　处：《气象科学》1991年第4期457-463,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本方法是针对江苏抗台防涝的需要,重点解决当台风进入“台风暴雨警戒区“时必须作出:本省是否有大于100毫米和200毫米的降水?如有,则全省过程总雨量最大能下多少?落区、落时?在因子选取方面,是紧紧围绕着台风暴雨发生的基本物理因子和有利的环境场,通过普查和人机结合筛选出优异的预报因子,最终用逐步回归的数学统计模型建立出相应的五个预报方程。它们的历史拟合和预报实践能力均是理想的。This paper presents a method of forcasting region of thphoor ramgush quantitatively and objectively,By this method,the following information can be obtained: i) whether there will be a rainfall over 100 mm and 200 mm is amount ii) if there is , where and when the maximum total rainfall will be measured. In this method, fundamental physical factors and suitably environmental field must be selected and used, Fine forecasting equations are established.

关 键 词：暴雨 台风 定量 预测 落区 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]