母婴人巨细胞病毒感染相关性数学模型研究  

Establishment of Mathematic Model of the Correlativity of HCMV Infection Between Mothers and Their Newborns

作　　者：邬国军[1] 陈淑贞[1] 戴橄[1] 肖扬名[1] 罗敏华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学湘雅医学院病毒研究室,湖南长沙410078

出　　处：《中国医师杂志》2001年第12期895-897,共3页Journal of Chinese Physician

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助课题 项目号 :3 970 0 0 0 6

摘　　要：目的　建立母婴人类巨细胞病毒感染相关性数学模型。方法　以ELISA及PCR技术对母婴血浆HCMV -IgM及血浆和P(C)BMCsHCMV -DNA进行了检测。结果　母婴HCMV感染之间存在明显的相关性 ,而且母亲血浆中HCMVDNA与HCMV先天性感染相关性最大 ,其Spearman等级相关系数达 0 70 18(P <0 0 0 0 1)。另外也作了从母亲HCMV检测结果判断HCMV先天性感染的Fisher二类判别分析 ,并建立了Fisher二类判别函数。经回代判别 ,本判别函数用于判断HCMV先天性感染的准确性达 91 2 %。结论　母婴HCMV感染之间存在明显的相关性 ,并且可以通过检测母亲HCMV来推测其胎儿HCMV先天感染的可能性。Objective To establish a mathematic model of correlativity of human cytomegalovirus(HCMV) infection between mothers and their newborns.Method The plasma HCMV-IgM content,HCMV-DNA levels in plasm and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were assayed with ELISA and PCR technique.Results There was a evident correlation between the two generation,and there was largest correlativity between HCMV-DNA level of mother's plasma and HCMV congenital infection rate,its spearman rank correlative coefficient was 0 7018(P<0 0001).Based on the detective value of mather's HCMV,we assessed a Fisher discriminatory analysis of congenital infection of HCMV and established a Fisher discriminatory function.The discriminatory function applied to judge the congenital infection of HCMV,its accuracy was 91 2%.Conclusion This study suggests that there is a evident correlation of HCMV infection between mothers and their newborns,and we can infer the possibility of HCMV congenital infection by the results from mothers plasma HCMV detection.

关 键 词：人巨细胞病毒 先天性感染 数学模型 妊娠 病毒 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]