农产品进口所带来的社会经济及环境影响——以江苏省为例  

The social economic and environmental impacts of agricultural import-A case study in Jiangsu

作　　者：周曙东[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济贸易学院,南京210095

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报》2001年第4期89-92,共4页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University

基　　金：教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助 (2 0 0 0 0 30 70 2 )

摘　　要：运用江苏省农业政策分析模型 ,对大宗农产品的关税配额进口可能带来的后果进行了模拟。指出中国加入WTO带来的经济影响是 :大量农产品进口将有助于解决部分农产品的短缺 ,但会导致农作物播种面积和产量下降 ,造成农产品价格降低 ,农民收入下降 ;带来的社会影响是 :有助于推动农业产业结构调整 ,但耕地利用率可能下降 ,会出现耕地抛荒 ,部分农产品自给率下降 ,农业劳动力使用量下降 ,农村隐型失业加重 ,农村贫困化程度加重 ,影响社会安定 ;带来的环境影响是 :大量农产品进口会使化肥农药的使用量下降 。A Jiangsu Agricultural Policy Analysis(JAPA) model was used to simulate the possible consequence of large agricultural TRQ import.It indicates that the economic impacts are:it could help to solve the shortage of some agricultural commodities,but the sown area and output will decrease,the prices of agricultural products will decrease,farmers income could decrease;the social impacts are:it will promote agricultural production structure adjustment,but the utilization rate of cultivated land may decrease,valuable land lies waste,the self sufficiency rates of some the agricultural commodities will reduce,agricultural employment will decrease,the poverty problem and social stability problem could worse;the environmental impacts could be:it will cause a reduction in application of chemical fertilizer and pesticides,but the cultivated land may be lost.

关 键 词：农产品进口 社会影响 经济影响 环境影响 江苏 农业政策分析模型 中国 入世 WTO 

分 类 号：F752.652[经济管理—国际贸易]