我国石油经济安全与监测预警复杂战略系统研究  

Complex Monitor-Warning System for Petroleum Economy Safety

作　　者：葛家理[1] 胡机豪[1] 张宏民[1] 

机构地区：[1]石油大学复杂性科学研究中心,北京102200

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2002年第1期75-80,共6页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：国家科技部软科学基金资助项目 ( 990 5 8)

摘　　要：对影响石油经济安全的十个潜在要素及国内国际石油经济安全的总体态势进行了分析 ,提出了石油经济安全的四个新特征及相应的“发展的安全观”理论。运用复杂性科学的理论对石油经济安全系统进行了分析 ,提出了“机遇控制论”的基本思想 ,通过综合集成建立了石油经济安全的主指标体系 ,确定了其安全界限 ,并编制了实用的石油经济安全数据库系统和预警监测系统软件 。This paper analyzes macro situation of petroleum economy safety home and abroad, and ten latent factors impacting on it. Four new characters of petroleum economy safety and the advanced theory of basing safety on development are presented. With the theory of complexity science, this paper demonstrates the complexity of the system of petroleum economy safety, and the basic thought of opportunity cybernetics is brought forward. Five integrated and compositive indexes for petroleum safety are chosen and the upper and lower limit for them are confirmed. With scientific index system and evaluation system set up here, applied software of database system and monitor\|warning system for petroleum economy safety is programmed. This software can save time and cost for safety decision drastically. [

关 键 词：石油经济安全 复杂性科学 安全监测 监测预警软件 机遇控制论 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] TP319[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]