灌区灌溉需水量的随机模拟  

Stochastic Simulation of Irrigation Water Requirements for Irrigation District

作　　者：尹正杰[1] 袁宏源[1] 崔远来[1] 时训柳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2001年第11期19-21,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：提出了一个含有趋势分量、季节分量、随机分量的时间序列模型 ,并用来模拟灌区灌溉需水量。分析发现灌溉需水量的序列无趋势 ,季节分量可用显著谐波数为 1的Fourier级数描述 ,而随机分量则可用一阶自回归模型表示。对模型残差的独立性和正态性的检验证实了模型的适用性。实例计算表明该模型用于模拟霍泉灌区小麦的旬灌溉需水量序列精度可靠 。A time series model with trend, periodic and stochastic components, is presented; then the model is used to simulate the irrigation water reqirements. Analysis shows that the irrigation water reqirement time series contains no trend, its periodic component can be expressed in Fourier series and its stochastic component can be described well with the first order autoregressive model. The model′s adequacy is proved by checking independence and normality of the residuals. The case study indicates that the model is precise, reasonable and applicable in simulating the ten day irrigation water requirements time series of wheat in Huoquan irrigation district.

关 键 词：灌溉需水量 时间序列 随机模拟 灌区 随机非平衡过程 

分 类 号：S274.4[农业科学—农业水土工程] O211.6[农业科学—农业工程]