住院医疗保险精算中预期住院费用和天数估计  

The Estimate Methods of the Expected Length of Stay and Expense in Hospital

作　　者：陈滔[1] 任仕泉[2] 杨树勤[3] 李良军[4] 刘德成 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学保险学院,610074 [2]四川大学管理学院 [3]四川大学华西医学中心卫生统计学教研室 [4]泰康人寿保险公司健康保险部 [5]成都市社保局医疗保险处

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2001年第6期323-325,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (70 1 0 30 0 7);西南财经大学"2 1 1"工程委托课题基金共同资助

摘　　要：目的　本文讨论了住院医疗保险精算中预期住院费用和住院天数的估计方法。方法　利用住院医疗保险的实际资料讨论了矩估计、变换矩估计、极大似然估计和蒙特卡洛马尔柯夫链 (MCMC)法在估计预期住院费用和住院天数中的应用。结果　在住院费用和住院天数符合对数正态分布时 ,上述四种方法的估计结果非常接近。结论　先找出住院费用和天数的总体分布 ,再合理选用以上四种方法估计出的总体均数和方差有更好的精度。Objective It's very important in the premium calculation of Hospital Insurance to discuss the estimate methods of the expected length of stay and expense in hospital.Methods With the claims data of social and private medical insurance,the moment estimate,modified moment estimate,maximum likelihood function estimate and the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were employed to get the estimation.Results The four kinds of methods get the similar estimation when the length of stay and expense in hospital fit the logarithm normal distribution.Conclusion You can get the accurate estimate with the proper one among the four kinds of estimated methods when you have found the distribution of the length of stay and expense in hospital.

关 键 词：住院医疗保险 保费测算 预期住院费用 预期住院天数 点估计 蒙特卡洛马尔柯夫链 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]