外部连带效应商品场的元胞自动机模拟  

The application of cellular automata to market with network externalities

作　　者：顾斌[1] 李绍铭[2] 余亮[1] 何宜柱[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学计算机学院,安徽马鞍山243002 [2]安徽工业大学电气信息学院,安徽马鞍山243002 [3]安徽工业大学冶金材料学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《安徽工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2002年第1期13-16,25,共5页Journal of Anhui University of Technology（Natural Science）

基　　金：安徽省教委科研项目(99JL0169);国家自然科学基金(59501010)

摘　　要：建立了一种用于模拟外部连带效应市场的元胞自动机模型。模型的基本方法是将每个人视作元胞自动机的一个单元,它的演化规则取决于它的邻居在前一时刻的状态。模拟得到了一些基本的结果:(1)当所有人都倾向于购买和别人相同产品的时候,系统通常在若干周期后达到平衡,其平衡时的状态取决于初始状态;(2)在一些特殊区域中,最终的演化结果对于初始分布条件十分敏感,所谓的“蝴蝶效应”会发生。A model of cellular automata to describe markets with network externalities was developed. The basic idea regards each cell as a person whose decision depends on the number of his or her neighbors who purchased the product inthe period.The simulation reveals some patterns of diffusion:(1) If all person prefer doing as their neighbors do, an equilibrium state where individuals ceaseto change their decisions is usually attained after some periods, but the number of those who buy the product depends on the initial conditions. (2) In some area, the evolvement is quit sensible to the initial distribution and so called butterfly effect can be found.

关 键 词：外部连带效应 元胞自动机 市场 模拟 商品 

分 类 号：F76[经济管理—产业经济] TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]