苹果绵蚜与苹果绵蚜日光蜂种间关系的模拟研究——Ⅱ.自然系统的模拟及灵敏度分析  

A SIMULATION OF INTERSPECIFIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOOLLY APPLE APHID, ERIOSO- MA LANIGERUM (HAUS.) AND ITS PARASITE, APHELINUS MALI (HALD.)Ⅱ. A SIMULATION AND SENSITIVE ANALYSIS OF NATURAL SYSTEM OF HOST-PARASITE

作　　者：唐业忠[1] 况荣平[1] 赵万源 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院昆明动物研究所

出　　处：《生态学报》1991年第2期130-134,共5页Acta Ecologica Sinica

摘　　要：本文在生物学特性研究的基础上,组建了苹果绵蚜(Eriosoma lanigerum)及其日光蜂(Aphelinus mali)寄主——天敌作用系统的Boxcar train模型,对苹果绵蚜猖獗期的二种群数量进行了模拟,其结果与果园调查基本吻合。用此模型做系统的灵敏度分析,结果表明系统的内部因子(如蚜蜂的基数比例)和外部因子(温湿度)对系统均有影响。温度升高,二种群数量增加,反之则下降。湿度增加,苹果绵蚜日光蜂种群数量上升,反之则下降。湿度变化对苹果绵蚜无不良影响。比较而言,温度对系统的影响比湿度大得多。减少苹果绵蚜基数比增加日光蜂基数对系统的影响大,据此可从理论上估计生物防治的局限性。A boxcar train model of interactive system of woolly apple aphid,Erio-soma lanigerum (Haus.),and its parasite, Apheiinus mali(Hald.), was developed on the basis of biological research on them and was used to simulate popuation dynamics of this pest and its parasite from March to July. A modelling result was basically consistent with natural population dynamics of them. The sensitive analysis showed that temperature and relative humidity have an effect on the host-parasite system: the population sizes of woolly apple aphid and its parasite were directly proportional to temperature, and Aphid population hardly enlarged with the increasing humidity while its parasite population did so. In comparison with humidity, temperature has greater effect on this system. In addition, the system was more sensitive to change in the base number of woolly apple aphid than that of its parasite. To some extent, the above results could be of guiding significance to control of woolly apple aphid.

关 键 词：苹果绵蚜 日光蜂 摸拟模型 灵敏度 

分 类 号：S476.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]