油气储量、产量及需求量的常用预测方法  

An Introduction of Common Prediction Methods for Oil and Gas Reserves，Production Rate and Requirement

作　　者：周总瑛[1] 张抗[1] 周庆凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2001年第5期444-447,共4页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：系统地介绍了油气储量、产量及需求量的常用预测方法，它们分别是生命模型拟合法、灰色系统方法、“储量－产量”双向控制方法、随机方法及间接方法。对这些方法的基本特点、适用范围及相关数学模型的建立进行简要分析，以供编制中长期油气勘探开发规划和制订油气发展战略时选择使用。： The common prediction methods for oil and gas reserves， production rate and requirement are introduced systematically in this paper． They are life model simulation method， gray system method， “reserves-production”dual controlled method， random method and indirect method． It also analyzed briefly their basic feature， suitable ranges and relevant mathematical model building． They can be used to compile the middle and long term plans of oil and gas exploration and development， and to draw up strategy of oil and gas growth．

关 键 词：需求量 预测方法 油气储量 油气产量 生命模型拟合法 灰色系统 

分 类 号：P618.130.8[天文地球—矿床学] TE13[天文地球—地质学]