时间和费用具有不确定性的优化进度计划  

Optimal Scheduling under Probabilistic Time and Cost

作　　者：汪嘉旻[1] 孙永广[1] 吴宗鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学核能技术设计研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2002年第1期93-98,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：对时间和费用都具有不确定性项目的进度计划的风险性进行了研究 ,提出了以净现值的期望值为优化目标的数学模型 DSPSP,描述如何权衡财务费用的节省和推迟现金流入的风险 ,合理地安排各个活动开始的延迟时间 .假定活动周期和费用都是离散随机变量 ,两者相关 .利用模拟退火过程对两个实例的求解表明 。In this paper, the risk of schedule in a project under randomness of both time and cost is analyzed. A model called DSPSP is proposed to determine optimal delay time for each activity so as to maximize the project's expected net present value in terms of financial cost and the risk of delaying the cash inflow. Duration and cost of each activity are dependent discrete random variables. The optimization result of two instances using a simulated annealing procedure is much better than the two extreme strategies: the very conservative one and the very optimistic one.

关 键 词：项目管理 进度计划 模拟退火算法 不确定性 时间 费用 现金流优化问题 

分 类 号：F28[经济管理—国民经济] O224[理学—运筹学与控制论]